Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	8h 32m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	10h 02m	97%	77%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 04m Portland	PDX 10:49 → DEN 14:19AS 684	7h 19m	88%	69%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 13:50 → DEN 17:43DL 2543	9h 43m	98%	66%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 13:16 → DEN 16:52AS 602	7h 53m	98%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON