Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 399 American Flight history →	ANC 20:20	DFW 05:42	28%	6%	0.7%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 09:15 → DFW 15:13DL 803	10h 43m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 08:44 → DFW 14:35AS 321	9h 38m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392	8h 42m	86%	69%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:55 → DFW 23:55DL 870	9h 13m	89%	60%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48	48m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549	8h 22m	84%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON