Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	11h 34m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → DTW 21:49DL 533	11h 49m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33AS 313	10h 36m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	8h 59m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON