Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 331 ANC 07:46 → FAI 08:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1722 ANC 16:47 → FAI 18:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 331 Alaska	ANC 07:46	FAI 08:58	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
AS 1432 Alaska	ANC 10:17	FAI 11:30	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 81 Alaska	ANC 18:35	FAI 19:47	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 679 Alaska	ANC 12:53	FAI 14:05	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1515 Alaska	ANC 20:31	FAI 21:43	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
AS 362 Alaska	ANC 22:39	FAI 23:51	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1722 Alaska	ANC 16:47	FAI 18:00	10%	2%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON