Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 50 at 16:14, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 50 Alaska	ANC 16:14	HNL 20:43	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 2 h behind Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:42 → PDX 06:30AS 593	1h 34m Portland	PDX 08:04 → HNL 11:04AS 880	11h 22m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34DL 351	12h 04m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:22 → SEA 06:44AS 98	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 08:59 → HNL 12:05AS 853	11h 43m	99%	63%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:23AS 48	48m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → HNL 15:22AS 899	10h 24m	83%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON