tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 13m Seattle SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49DL 429 10h 19m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 3h 54m Seattle SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452 12h 38m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 3h 00m Seattle SEA 09:28 → JFK 17:23AS 26 11h 26m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 54m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 10h 15m 88% 66%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon 1h 02m Portland PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18 10h 23m 87% 63%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48 2h 34m Seattle SEA 13:59 → JFK 21:55AS 34 10h 56m 99% 61%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447 3h 52m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor 12h 09m 98% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON