Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 64 ANC 10:31 → JNU 12:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 7005 ANC 04:33 → JNU 06:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 64 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 10:31	JNU 12:13	7%	3%	0.8%	86%
AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 07:15	JNU 08:57	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
AS 70 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 19:47	JNU 21:28	8%	3%	0.9%	87%
AS 7005 Alaska	ANC 04:33	JNU 06:26	8%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON