Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:43, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1516 Alaska	ANC 23:26	LAS 05:34	15%	3%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:43 → PDX 06:32AS 593	2h 32m Portland	PDX 09:04 → LAS 11:17AS 1337	8h 34m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 07:25 → LAS 10:01DL 2922	7h 31m	96%	84%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612	7h 32m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	2h 51m Portland	PDX 12:36 → LAS 14:51AS 751	8h 51m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949	7h 58m	94%	65%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 13:39 → LAS 16:05AS 728	8h 06m	98%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON