Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 44 Alaska	ANC 23:21	LAX 05:51	18%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628	7h 35m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914	8h 23m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:48 → LAX 13:23AS 695	7h 23m	87%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → LAX 12:51AS 496	9h 54m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 21:46 → LAX 00:33 +1DL 2512	9h 21m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696	8h 26m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861	7h 31m	89%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON