tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 447 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 447 Delta Flight history → ANC 06:00 MSP 14:18 8% 3% 0.6% 86%
DL 377 Delta Flight history → ANC 22:10 MSP 06:25 20% 5% 0.7% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 2h 07m Seattle SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555 9h 00m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 3h 50m Seattle SEA 14:30 → MSP 19:54DL 942 10h 54m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon 2h 04m Portland PDX 11:49 → MSP 17:02AS 332 9h 02m 94% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48 2h 03m Seattle SEA 13:28 → MSP 18:36AS 509 8h 37m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 1h 45m Seattle SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949 8h 48m 89% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON