Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 593 ANC 01:43 → PDX 06:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 1324 ANC 11:56 → PDX 16:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 593 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:43	PDX 06:32	5%	1%	0.7%	93%
AS 1407 Alaska	ANC 08:53	PDX 13:40	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1324 Alaska	ANC 11:56	PDX 16:39	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 2398 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ANC 05:00	PDX 09:45	14%	10%	3.8%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	52m Seattle	SEA 07:20 → PDX 08:18AS 761	5h 21m	88%	73%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48	51m Seattle	SEA 12:16 → PDX 13:15AS 488	5h 16m	86%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON