Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 01:57, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 47 Alaska	ANC 00:07	PHX 06:30	12%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:43 → PDX 06:32AS 593	2h 32m Portland	PDX 09:04 → PHX 11:45AS 1350	9h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	8h 50m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442	9h 41m	97%	77%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 07:28 → PHX 10:18AS 606	7h 21m	92%	74%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	8h 46m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 06m Portland	PDX 10:51 → PHX 13:32AS 746	7h 32m	88%	66%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	8h 47m	92%	65%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	8h 21m	94%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON