Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 925 at 01:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 925 ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1417 ANC 14:39 → SEA 19:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 925 Delta Flight history →	ANC 01:30	SEA 06:02	7%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 98 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:57	SEA 06:28	8%	2%	0.9%	88%
AS 1423 Alaska	ANC 01:27	SEA 06:04	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 532 Alaska	ANC 01:53	SEA 06:29	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 853 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:40	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 833 Delta	ANC 07:57	SEA 12:24	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	ANC 11:42	SEA 16:20	11%	2%	0.7%	95%
AS 1380 Alaska	ANC 00:24	SEA 04:48	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 48 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 06:59	SEA 11:25	11%	2%	0.8%	88%
AS 408 Alaska	ANC 06:02	SEA 10:28	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 651 Alaska	ANC 09:09	SEA 13:34	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	ANC 14:12	SEA 18:46	14%	3%	0.8%	89%
AS 440 Alaska	ANC 10:24	SEA 14:50	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 594 Alaska	ANC 08:04	SEA 12:29	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 595 Alaska	ANC 12:24	SEA 16:54	17%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 9620 Alaska	ANC 09:48	SEA 14:05	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 208 Alaska	ANC 17:04	SEA 21:38	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 597 Alaska	ANC 16:01	SEA 20:31	21%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 1417 Alaska	ANC 14:39	SEA 19:09	22%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON