tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 3h 43m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412 9h 34m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 2h 53m Seattle SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635 8h 47m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 3h 50m Seattle SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 9h 49m 98% 67%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:43 → PDX 06:32AS 593 47m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 6h 33m 83% 62%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 10h 12m 81% 61%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 1h 30m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 89% 57%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 2h 25m Seattle SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528 8h 12m 99% 56%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48 2h 27m Seattle SEA 13:52 → SFO 15:59AS 688 8h 00m 99% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ANC 15:50 → PDX 20:44AS 2080 · flown by Horizon 49m Portland PDX 21:33 → SFO 23:27AS 697 6h 37m 48% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON