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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:43, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:43 → PDX 06:32AS 593 4h 00m Portland PDX 10:32 → SLC 13:33AS 3355 · flown by SkyWest 9h 50m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 3h 28m Seattle SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 9h 06m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 12h 07m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 2h 50m Seattle SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120 8h 40m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 50m Seattle SEA 07:18 → SLC 10:18AS 430 6h 21m 86% 69%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 3h 30m Seattle SEA 19:50 → SLC 22:55DL 1239 9h 13m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:59 → SEA 11:25AS 48 3h 17m Seattle SEA 14:42 → SLC 17:43AS 663 8h 44m 99% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON