Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3840 at 07:33, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3840 SkyWest	ASE 07:33	ATL 13:11	19%	9%	3.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Denver	DEN 10:11 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	5h 53m	90%	70%
United Details →	ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:37UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	7h 58m	100%	66%
American Details →	ASE 07:35 → DFW 10:47AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:33 → ATL 16:53AA 2398	7h 18m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471	10h 27m	94%	64%
American Details →	ASE 07:14 → ORD 11:06AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 12:57 → ATL 16:11AA 616	6h 57m	91%	58%
United Details →	ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Denver	DEN 18:08 → ATL 23:14UA 248	8h 07m	93%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	51m Los Angeles	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	7h 56m	66%	46%
United Details →	ASE 13:22 → IAH 17:04UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Houston	IAH 18:05 → ATL 21:09UA 2240	5h 47m	69%	42%
United Details →	ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Denver	DEN 18:08 → ATL 23:14UA 248	5h 49m	68%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON