tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 4h 50m 89% 69%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:09 → DEN 10:14UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:49 → AUS 17:14UA 8167 7h 05m 94% 64%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:42 → SFO 11:16UA 4657 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m San Francisco SFO 13:20 → AUS 19:05UA 1116 8h 23m 94% 63%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:22 → IAH 17:04UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 7h 03m 92% 62%
DeltaDetails → ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → AUS 20:58DL 622 7h 55m 92% 62%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:02 → LAX 09:20UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 1h 27m Los Angeles LAX 10:47 → AUS 15:55UA 1496 6h 53m 85% 60%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:35 → DFW 10:47AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:30 → AUS 14:42AA 1073 6h 07m 97% 60%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 6h 16m 92% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Denver DEN 13:49 → AUS 17:14UA 8167 4h 42m 67% 46%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 4h 41m 67% 43%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 5h 32m 74% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON