Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5766 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 5766 ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5778 ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	DEN 08:48	17%	9%	6.1%	89%
UA 4647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:32	DEN 09:37	21%	10%	5.6%	89%
UA 5770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:09	DEN 10:14	31%	11%	6.9%	83%worse than usual
UA 5772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:32	DEN 12:45	35%	15%	7.0%	77%worse than usual
OO 5589 SkyWest	ASE 14:16	DEN 15:21	36%	23%	5.6%	no record
UA 5774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:07	DEN 14:20	40%	20%	5.4%	76%worse than usual
UA 5776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 15:25	DEN 16:38	50%	27%	5.5%	63%worse than usual
UA 5778 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 17:10	DEN 18:23	52%	24%	6.1%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON