Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5851 ASE 08:02 → LAX 09:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 4133 ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5851 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:02	LAX 09:20	24%	11%	7.0%	81%
UA 5940 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 19:15	LAX 20:43	27%	21%	7.6%	62%
DL 4133 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:03	LAX 13:24	29%	18%	6.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON