tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 4657 at 09:42, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:42 SFO 11:16 32% 23% 6.2% 88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:37UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 7h 37m 100% 67%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 6h 34m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:02 → LAX 09:20UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Los Angeles LAX 11:52 → SFO 13:28UA 1245 6h 26m 94% 60%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 6h 58m 93% 56%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:35 → DFW 10:47AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SFO 15:03AA 2325 8h 28m 97% 53%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 33m 91% 49%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 6h 46m 90% 48%
UnitedDetails → ASE 19:15 → LAX 20:43UA 5940 · flown by SkyWest 1h 48m Los Angeles LAX 22:31 → SFO 23:58UA 1047 5h 43m 86% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 1h 27m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 5h 23m 70% 43%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 5h 15m 63% 34%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 19:25 → SFO 21:11UA 1389 5h 01m 50% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON