Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 16:38, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	12h 21m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:30 → IAH 08:35DL 1585	2h 57m Houston	IAH 11:32 → ANC 15:52DL 8960	12h 22m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	10h 29m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	12h 45m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367	11h 41m	98%	69%
American Details →	ATL 11:01 → DFW 12:30AA 820	2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399	12h 08m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	11h 13m	93%	66%
Alaska Details →	ATL 07:04 → SEA 09:27AS 377	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333	11h 30m	96%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	10h 08m	75%	53%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:38 → MSP 17:16DL 2981	54m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	9h 22m	68%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON