Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4011 at 09:45, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4011 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 09:45	ASE 11:22	21%	7%	1.1%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	9h 45m	98%	77%
United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340	3h 35m Denver	DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	99%	71%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	1h 35m Houston	IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	94%	67%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	3h 54m Denver	DEN 16:22 → ASE 17:26UA 5697 · flown by SkyWest	8h 16m	98%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	55m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON