Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 560 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 560 ATL 06:15 → AUS 07:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4211 ATL 16:26 → AUS 18:04 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 560 Southwest	ATL 06:15	AUS 07:44	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	AUS 09:27	11%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	AUS 11:03	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	AUS 12:25	15%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	AUS 13:54	18%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	AUS 15:50	21%	4%	0.8%	80%
WN 971 Southwest	ATL 14:15	AUS 15:46	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	AUS 17:19	26%	4%	0.8%	76%
DL 1335 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	AUS 00:18	28%	6%	0.9%	82%
WN 1251 Southwest	ATL 17:45	AUS 19:16	29%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 1170 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	AUS 20:22	30%	6%	0.8%	72%
DL 1081 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	AUS 22:07	31%	6%	0.8%	60%
F9 4211 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:26	AUS 18:04	32%	12%	1.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON