Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3069 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 3069 ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 196 ATL 21:14 → BNA 21:29 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:41	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	BNA 09:50	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	BNA 11:30	12%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 446 Southwest	ATL 11:55	BNA 12:10	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	BNA 14:03	19%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 790 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:25	BNA 14:38	20%	4%	0.7%	67%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:13	BNA 15:26	22%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 3121 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	BNA 23:15	22%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:31	BNA 18:52	25%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 3002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:30	BNA 21:44	28%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 758 Delta	ATL 17:52	BNA 18:05	30%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 196 Southwest	ATL 21:14	BNA 21:29	34%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON