tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 30% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 483 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:19 BUR 12:55 24% 3% 0.9% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 9h 02m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340 1h 10m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 56m 89% 69%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → BUR 11:34AA 1208 8h 33m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35UA 571 1h 54m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → BUR 11:58UA 8211 8h 28m 98% 64%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 07:04 → SEA 09:27AS 377 3h 53m Seattle SEA 13:20 → BUR 15:56AS 529 11h 52m 98% 63%
FrontierDetails → ATL 08:42 → LAS 10:05F9 4891 1h 09m Las Vegas LAS 11:14 → BUR 12:37F9 4107 6h 55m 79% 57%
DeltaDetails → ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 3h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 9h 28m 100% 57%
AmericanDetails → ATL 16:25 → DFW 17:54AA 1008 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 8h 33m 97% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ATL 07:04 → SEA 09:27AS 377 46m Seattle SEA 10:13 → BUR 12:48AS 1395 8h 44m 63% 43%
DeltaDetails → ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653 54m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 6h 53m 52% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON