Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 406 at 11:10, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BZN 13:11	15%	3%	0.9%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:33DL 2946	7h 08m	98%	87%
United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340	1h 47m Denver	DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741	6h 57m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → BZN 15:14DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	9h 34m	98%	79%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:11 → BZN 11:28AA 952	7h 27m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	10h 11m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	99%	76%
American Details →	ATL 06:47 → CLT 08:05AA 5329 · flown by PSA	1h 26m Charlotte	CLT 09:31 → BZN 11:44AA 2415	6h 57m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	8h 28m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	54m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	8h 04m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON