Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1590 at 10:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1590 ATL 10:06 → CAE 11:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2193 ATL 17:33 → CAE 18:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:06	CAE 11:13	11%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:00	CAE 12:59	12%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:05	CAE 15:06	17%	4%	0.9%	85%
DL 3029 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	CAE 23:43	22%	8%	0.8%	80%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:15	CAE 17:22	24%	6%	0.9%	86%
DL 3008 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:09	CAE 21:16	24%	7%	0.9%	84%
DL 2193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:33	CAE 18:40	25%	6%	0.8%	78%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 10:05	CAE 11:14	7%	0%	0.0%	93%
DL 5001 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:10	CAE 21:19	40%	25%	3.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON