Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1737 ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1366 ATL 21:15 → CHA 22:12 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1737 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:33	CHA 12:22	15%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 3141 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:13	CHA 14:02	21%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 3124 Delta	ATL 16:44	CHA 17:41	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
DL 1722 Delta	ATL 19:35	CHA 20:32	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
DL 1366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	CHA 22:12	25%	7%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
DL 5309 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 08:20	CHA 09:19	10%	2%	1.6%	90%
DL 4722 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:45	CHA 20:46	37%	19%	5.5%	63%
DL 5368 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 21:10	CHA 22:11	53%	39%	0.0%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON