Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5475 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 5475 ATL 07:32 → CHS 08:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3179 ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5475 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 07:32	CHS 08:48	8%	2%	1.3%	96%
DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:00	CHS 10:13	12%	3%	0.9%	93%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:46	CHS 12:00	12%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	CHS 15:53	18%	4%	1.1%	84%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	CHS 13:42	18%	4%	1.1%	87%
DL 2850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	CHS 00:26	20%	5%	1.4%	82%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:59	CHS 17:16	24%	4%	1.1%	82%
DL 2493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:27	CHS 20:42	28%	5%	1.1%	83%worse than usual
DL 1663 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	CHS 22:07	29%	6%	1.1%	72%
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:39	CHS 18:54	29%	5%	1.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON