Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5216 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day OH 5216 ATL 05:11 → CLT 06:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3139 ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5216 PSA	ATL 05:11	CLT 06:25	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 5329 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 06:47	CLT 08:05	9%	4%	1.5%	94%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CLT 11:26	10%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 3144 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:38	CLT 08:49	10%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 09:22	CLT 10:51	12%	5%	1.2%	88%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:20	CLT 13:31	15%	3%	0.8%	84%
OH 5207 PSA	ATL 10:57	CLT 12:15	15%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 3177 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:41	CLT 23:58	21%	6%	0.7%	84%
DL 3031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	CLT 16:17	22%	4%	0.9%	74%
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 16:45	CLT 18:00	24%	7%	1.5%	67%
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 18:10	CLT 19:28	25%	9%	1.8%	72%
DL 2132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	CLT 20:11	27%	6%	0.9%	72%
DL 3158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	CLT 18:19	27%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 8853 Delta	ATL 21:22	CLT 22:32	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 3139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	CLT 21:57	33%	6%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON