Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1479 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1479 ATL 07:25 → CMH 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2540 ATL 17:24 → CMH 19:10 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	CMH 09:00	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CMH 11:48	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:06	CMH 13:38	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:19	CMH 15:58	13%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:25	CMH 19:03	20%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 1459 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:03	CMH 23:40	22%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	23%	5%	0.7%	67%
DL 1501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:31	CMH 22:10	23%	5%	0.7%	74%
WN 1201 Southwest	ATL 16:50	CMH 18:32	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 2540 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:24	CMH 19:10	40%	10%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON