Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1358 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1358 ATL 08:31 → DCA 10:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 977 ATL 19:00 → DCA 20:52 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1358 Southwest	ATL 08:31	DCA 10:23	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DCA 09:16	9%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	DCA 11:27	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 5306 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 07:59	DCA 09:53	12%	4%	1.9%	93%
MQ 3881 Envoy	ATL 11:00	DCA 12:53	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 1798 Delta	ATL 10:59	DCA 12:46	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DCA 15:54	17%	5%	1.0%	21%
YX 4576 Republic	ATL 16:47	DCA 18:57	18%	6%	1.7%	no record
YX 4735 Republic	ATL 20:38	DCA 22:47	23%	7%	2.7%	no record
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	DCA 14:56	24%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	DCA 17:30	27%	7%	0.9%	58%
DL 537 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	DCA 23:52	29%	7%	1.0%	70%
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	DCA 18:37	30%	7%	1.1%	65%
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	35%	10%	1.0%	60%
DL 378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:55	DCA 22:48	35%	10%	1.1%	66%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	36%	9%	1.0%	59%
WN 1361 Southwest	ATL 17:13	DCA 18:58	37%	10%	1.0%	no record
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	38%	11%	1.1%	57%
WN 977 Southwest	ATL 19:00	DCA 20:52	41%	13%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON