Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 211 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 211 ATL 06:20 → DEN 07:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2991 ATL 20:10 → DEN 21:18 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 211 Southwest	ATL 06:20	DEN 07:31	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:14	DEN 09:26	13%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 340 United Flight history →	ATL 08:52	DEN 10:05	13%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	DEN 11:05	14%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 1327 United Flight history →	ATL 11:10	DEN 12:28	15%	5%	0.7%	91%
WN 212 Southwest	ATL 11:58	DEN 13:10	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1449 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DEN 09:03	19%	6%	1.0%	69%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	DEN 14:00	19%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 530 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DEN 14:58	25%	4%	0.9%	81%
DL 956 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	DEN 00:23	28%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 746 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DEN 20:43	33%	8%	0.9%	70%
DL 519 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:43	DEN 17:56	37%	8%	0.8%	69%
DL 493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	DEN 16:11	38%	8%	0.9%	79%worse than usual
F9 3599 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	DEN 22:05	39%	12%	1.1%	64%
UA 609 United	ATL 16:38	DEN 18:11	42%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 2991 Southwest	ATL 20:10	DEN 21:18	42%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON