Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3048 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3048 ATL 08:05 → ECP 08:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2494 ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	ECP 08:12	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:41	ECP 10:48	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:49	ECP 13:54	13%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 3131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:27	ECP 23:37	18%	6%	1.2%	84%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:01	ECP 16:12	18%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 3053 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	ECP 17:55	19%	6%	1.0%	76%
DL 2494 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:35	ECP 20:46	20%	7%	1.2%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON