tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1002 at 12:15 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1002 Delta Flight history → ATL 12:15 ELP 13:20 17% 3% 0.7% 84%
DL 1713 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:39 ELP 20:50 33% 7% 0.9% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532 2h 34m Houston IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa 6h 46m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340 1h 17m Denver DEN 11:22 → ELP 13:15UA 2128 6h 23m 91% 75%
UnitedDetails → ATL 15:57 → IAH 17:23UA 3992 · flown by Mesa 2h 34m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 7h 04m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → ELP 09:40AA 1365 5h 39m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:37 → IAH 12:47UA 425 1h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 48m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:59 → ELP 11:49AA 1658 5h 27m 88% 64%
AmericanDetails → ATL 16:55 → LAX 18:42AA 2221 1h 23m Los Angeles LAX 20:05 → ELP 23:09AA 4905 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 84% 63%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:01 → DFW 12:30AA 820 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:50 → ELP 15:43AA 1681 6h 42m 93% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ATL 20:24 → DFW 21:50AA 2403 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → ELP 23:46AA 1607 5h 22m 68% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON