Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2615 at 18:16, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2615 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:16	FSD 19:56	22%	9%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	3h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06DL 1694	7h 28m	99%	76%
American Details →	ATL 11:01 → DFW 12:30AA 820	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:10 → FSD 17:26AA 3820 · flown by Envoy	7h 25m	96%	75%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:58 → FSD 12:12AA 2872	7h 11m	98%	74%
United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340	3h 35m Denver	DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest	8h 31m	99%	72%
American Details →	ATL 15:11 → DFW 16:39AA 3104	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:49 → FSD 21:58AA 2937	7h 47m	94%	47%
United Details →	ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → FSD 17:53UA 4404 · flown by GoJet	5h 35m	78%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON