Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2547 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2547 ATL 09:50 → GRR 11:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2865 ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2547 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	GRR 11:44	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2058 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:19	GRR 17:14	21%	4%	0.9%	84%
DL 2210 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	GRR 21:51	25%	5%	2.4%	80%
DL 2865 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	GRR 23:54	26%	6%	2.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON