Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3089 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3089 ATL 08:20 → GSP 09:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3136 ATL 21:14 → GSP 22:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	GSP 09:18	5%	1%	0.7%	91%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	GSP 10:57	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:57	GSP 12:57	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1273 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:07	GSP 14:01	11%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:07	GSP 16:07	16%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	GSP 23:54	20%	5%	0.7%	81%
DL 1021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:32	GSP 20:39	21%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 3136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:14	GSP 22:15	22%	5%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON