Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 837 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	HNL 13:20	14%	4%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	12h 18m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:33 → DTW 09:30DL 1646	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	12h 34m	92%	78%
United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:06UA 340	1h 54m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 21m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	13h 28m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	12h 37m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	12h 04m	94%	73%
United Details →	ATL 06:57 → SFO 09:12UA 571	1h 33m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	12h 23m	94%	72%
American Details →	ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00AA 1777	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → HNL 14:09AA 693	12h 21m	92%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348	51m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → HNL 15:22AS 899	12h 28m	62%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON