Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 278 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 278 ATL 06:05 → HOU 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 225 ATL 20:40 → HOU 21:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 278 Southwest	ATL 06:05	HOU 07:19	4%	1%	1.2%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:41	HOU 09:45	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	HOU 12:10	16%	3%	0.7%	85%
WN 223 Southwest	ATL 12:36	HOU 13:50	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	HOU 16:22	21%	4%	0.7%	81%
WN 672 Southwest	ATL 15:26	HOU 16:39	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 2051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	HOU 21:51	32%	6%	1.0%	73%
WN 225 Southwest	ATL 20:40	HOU 21:56	33%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON