Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4930 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 4930 ATL 07:48 → HPN 10:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1616 ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4930 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 07:48	HPN 10:15	11%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	HPN 12:21	17%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 5435 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 12:10	HPN 14:36	18%	6%	1.0%	73%
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 15:50	HPN 18:16	24%	7%	1.0%	73%
DL 1616 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	HPN 22:25	25%	7%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON