Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1159 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1159 ATL 05:41 → IAD 07:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1309 ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1159 United	ATL 05:41	IAD 07:40	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1324 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	IAD 09:26	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 632 United Flight history →	ATL 09:25	IAD 11:15	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:54	IAD 11:41	12%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2135 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	IAD 14:39	13%	3%	0.9%	85%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	ATL 14:41	IAD 16:35	19%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 1695 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	IAD 17:12	22%	5%	0.9%	78%
UA 2131 United	ATL 19:42	IAD 21:45	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
F9 3692 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 23:16	IAD 01:23	23%	13%	1.1%	56%
DL 2902 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:39	IAD 18:31	24%	6%	0.9%	71%
DL 2549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	IAD 00:41	25%	6%	0.9%	75%
F9 4410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:52	IAD 16:40	28%	12%	1.1%	67%
DL 1309 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	IAD 21:03	29%	7%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON