Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 315 at 18:10, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 315 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:10	JAC 20:04	25%	6%	1.1%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:38 → JAC 16:45DL 509	8h 35m	100%	80%
United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340	3h 50m Denver	DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537	8h 33m	99%	74%
American Details →	ATL 06:47 → CLT 08:05AA 5329 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 09:07 → JAC 11:26AA 1175	6h 39m	91%	71%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:15 → JAC 11:17AA 1923	7h 16m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282	6h 00m	82%	70%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	7h 42m	97%	68%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	3h 52m Denver	DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200	8h 43m	98%	62%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:12 → JAC 14:59AA 1883	8h 37m	98%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON