Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2328 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2328 ATL 07:25 → JAX 08:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1550 ATL 17:49 → JAX 19:16 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	JAX 08:36	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2276 Delta Flight history →	ATL 00:09	JAX 01:26	9%	3%	0.9%	76%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:48	JAX 12:00	13%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:37	JAX 13:45	17%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:53	JAX 15:05	20%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	JAX 16:27	24%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 2440 Delta	ATL 16:41	JAX 17:56	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2189 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:51	JAX 19:13	28%	6%	0.7%	64%
DL 2265 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	JAX 21:13	30%	6%	0.8%	71%
DL 2315 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:33	JAX 22:49	30%	6%	0.8%	57%
F9 1550 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:49	JAX 19:16	40%	14%	1.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON