Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2420 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 2420 ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 520 ATL 19:05 → JFK 21:32 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2420 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:42	JFK 10:00	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 1034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:44	JFK 12:00	12%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	JFK 13:20	15%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 1575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	JFK 16:29	19%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 1520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 10:10	JFK 12:32	25%	10%	1.3%	74%
F9 4732 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:21	JFK 11:50	25%	10%	1.1%	74%
DL 2398 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	JFK 21:29	26%	8%	0.7%	76%
DL 1632 Delta	ATL 22:40	JFK 00:51	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 120 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 14:15	JFK 16:31	32%	15%	1.3%	68%
DL 2378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:32	JFK 21:43	36%	8%	0.7%	70%
B6 520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 19:05	JFK 21:32	46%	20%	1.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON