Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2241 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 2241 ATL 07:06 → LAS 08:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1115 ATL 21:19 → LAS 22:45 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2241 Southwest	ATL 07:06	LAS 08:21	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	LAS 09:31	12%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	LAS 11:00	15%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	LAS 12:02	19%	4%	0.6%	80%
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:42	LAS 10:05	26%	9%	1.0%	70%
DL 549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:15	LAS 14:18	28%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 919 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:27	LAS 19:47	30%	10%	0.7%	76%
DL 659 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:42	LAS 17:52	30%	7%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
DL 711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	LAS 17:52	30%	7%	0.7%	78%
DL 722 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:34	LAS 19:42	32%	11%	0.7%	63%
DL 825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:20	LAS 22:35	35%	10%	0.7%	67%
DL 834 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:19	LAS 22:40	36%	10%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
WN 234 Southwest	ATL 19:40	LAS 20:56	46%	11%	0.6%	no record
F9 1115 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:19	LAS 22:45	52%	19%	1.4%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON