Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 763 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 763 ATL 07:00 → LAX 08:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest DL 575 ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:00	LAX 08:45	11%	3%	0.7%	68%
DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	16%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 898 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	LAX 09:48	17%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 827 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	LAX 10:45	18%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	19%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	LAX 11:55	20%	3%	0.7%	86%
F9 4315 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:04	LAX 11:54	23%	7%	0.9%	74%
DL 301 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:40	LAX 17:25	23%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:50	LAX 20:36	23%	6%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:15	LAX 16:54	30%	10%	1.0%	69%
DL 331 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	LAX 22:32	31%	6%	0.7%	72%
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	31%	6%	0.7%	77%
AA 2221 American Flight history →	ATL 16:55	LAX 18:42	32%	7%	0.8%	67%
DL 575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	LAX 00:30	32%	6%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	1h 15m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	6h 43m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:45 → LAX 14:58DL 521	6h 30m	83%	66%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	56m Nashville	BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355	6h 16m	75%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON