Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 323 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 323 ATL 07:30 → LGA 09:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3454 ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:51 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	LGA 09:39	7%	2%	1.0%	91%
DL 513 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	LGA 10:41	9%	3%	1.0%	88%
YX 4612 Republic	ATL 09:12	LGA 11:35	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 557 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	LGA 11:43	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	LGA 12:42	13%	3%	1.1%	86%
AA 4600 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 12:07	LGA 14:28	13%	5%	2.0%	77%
DL 525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	LGA 14:50	14%	5%	1.0%	75%
DL 467 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	LGA 13:42	15%	4%	1.0%	86%
DL 460 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	LGA 15:50	18%	4%	0.9%	78%
DL 524 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	LGA 16:50	20%	6%	1.0%	73%
YX 4349 Republic	ATL 15:36	LGA 18:06	21%	8%	1.5%	no record
DL 520 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:00	LGA 23:24	22%	6%	1.0%	72%
DL 433 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:49	24%	7%	1.0%	71%
DL 490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	LGA 22:27	25%	7%	1.0%	63%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 17:06	LGA 19:36	25%	8%	1.7%	50%
DL 434 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	LGA 20:27	25%	8%	1.0%	64%
AA 4662 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 19:18	LGA 21:39	25%	7%	1.5%	57%
DL 468 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	LGA 21:28	26%	7%	1.0%	67%
DL 997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	LGA 19:20	29%	8%	1.0%	68%
F9 3458 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:35	LGA 20:57	38%	17%	2.5%	34%
F9 3454 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:51	41%	19%	2.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON