Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2471 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2471 ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1130 ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	MCI 09:38	9%	2%	1.5%	93%
WN 715 Southwest	ATL 09:55	MCI 11:10	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	MCI 11:11	12%	2%	1.5%	90%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MCI 12:13	14%	3%	1.5%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:24	MCI 14:29	16%	3%	1.9%	88%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	MCI 16:30	21%	5%	1.0%	86%
DL 1470 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	MCI 18:55	26%	7%	1.0%	77%
DL 2911 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	MCI 23:58	27%	6%	0.8%	81%
DL 3023 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:37	MCI 21:52	27%	7%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
DL 1130 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:45	MCI 20:56	29%	7%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON