Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 236 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 236 ATL 08:09 → MCO 09:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2050 ATL 21:16 → MCO 22:54 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 236 Southwest	ATL 08:09	MCO 09:44	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MCO 08:56	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	MCO 09:56	11%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	MCO 10:57	12%	3%	0.8%	85%
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:27	MCO 08:02	13%	5%	1.2%	79%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	MCO 12:00	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	MCO 13:00	17%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:58	MCO 14:28	21%	5%	0.9%	77%
F9 4556 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:46	MCO 11:21	22%	9%	1.2%	79%
WN 468 Southwest	ATL 13:05	MCO 14:40	24%	7%	1.4%	no record
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	MCO 14:34	25%	6%	1.5%	73%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	MCO 19:48	30%	10%	1.1%	57%
DL 1162 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:25	MCO 23:58	31%	9%	0.8%	68%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	MCO 17:47	31%	9%	1.0%	57%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	MCO 16:40	31%	9%	0.9%	63%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MCO 18:50	34%	11%	1.0%	59%
DL 1302 Delta	ATL 21:38	MCO 23:08	35%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:17	MCO 21:55	37%	10%	0.9%	61%
WN 1679 Southwest	ATL 20:01	MCO 21:36	37%	11%	0.7%	no record
DL 2881 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MCO 20:35	39%	11%	0.9%	62%
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	MCO 22:15	42%	19%	1.6%	49%
F9 2050 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:16	MCO 22:54	43%	19%	1.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON